Second-homeowners’ intention to move: an integrated ordered logit model with latent variable

Second-homes represent a very peculiar reality for the tourism market, particularly in Switzerland in which this segment has a long tradition and represents an important share in the accommodation sector. Very few studies took into account the intention of second-home owners to permanently move to the place (typically representing the destination of leisure trips) where they own their dwelling. The purpose of the research is to investigate how the intention to relocate is determined by a set of factors; among these, we include socio-economic covariates characterizing the second-home owners and the extent and habits of usage of the second-home. We apply an ordered logit model in which the dependent variable is the self-assessed probability to relocate; we extend the classical framework of ordered logit models including a latent variable, described by a series of indicators such as the attraction of the owners towards the region of relocation, the desire to spend time at destination and owners’ relationship with neighbors. The rationale behind the use of unobservable factors is the idea that the decision to permanently relocate in the second-home destination is not only affected by observable variables but also by different attitudinal and psychological aspects which are not directly observable. Data used to pursue the research objectives refer to a structured survey submitted to individuals owning a second-home in the Lake Maggiore region in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) and the subsample of Swiss respondents was analyzed. About one fifth of the eligible sample declared a very high probability to relocate in a permanent way in the vacation home while more or less 40% declared a very low likelihood. Results indicate that the attitudinal and psychological traits expressed by the second-home owners represent a fundamental source of explanation of their intention to permanently relocate

Understanding the impact of risk perception in leisure tourism-related decisions and the role of attitudes and preferences

The contemporary tourism industry is often forced to face events that represent a threat to individuals’ safety. Life- threatening events pose a challenge to travelers’ intentions to plan a leisure trip and influence in a substantive manner human decisions. Individual sensitivity towards potential hazards show a great deal of variation among consumers and several tourism scholars have spent the last years investigating the sources of heterogeneity in hazard-induced travel decisions. The present PhD dissertation collects three research articles dealing with tourist risk perception, hazard-induced travel behaviour and the role of individual traits in decision-making influenced by potential hazards. The specific aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between travel attitudes and hazard-induced risk perception, and between risk perception and travel choices. Furthermore, the work intends to assess the differences between distinct life-threatening hazards and the way in which these determine travel decisions. For the purpose of empirical analysis, a structured survey was administered to a sample of university students. Part of the questionnaire was dedicated to a stated preference experiment in which individuals had to choose between hypothetical alternatives of travels characterized by hazards. In this thesis, advanced econometric techniques – namely, Integrated Choice and Latent Variable modelling – are implemented in order to allow unobservable individual traits to be tested as significant determinants of travellers’ decisions. The main results highlight that travel attitudes bear a significant role in shaping risk perception only for certain types of hazards. The analysis of stated preferences data show that an increasing level of risk perception negatively influences the likelihood to travel to dangerous destinations, but important and significant differences are present in the sample of respondents

Testing for nonlinearity in the choice of a freight transport service

Manufacturing firms buy transport services with the aim of minimizing their total logistics cost. There is a large amount of literature analyzing how shippers value the various characteristics of a transport service, mostly performed by collecting stated-preference data and estimating discrete choice models. Most of the empirical studies specify the deterministic part of the utility functions as linear in the observed attributes. This implicitly constrains the characteristics of the analyzed transport service to be perfect substitutes, and to have a constant substitutability ratio. Such an assumption is inconsistent with the standard microeconomic theory, typically assuming inputs’ decreasing marginal productivity, and may not be realistic. The paper tests the linearity assumption for freight rate, travel time, probability of having damaged and lost freight, frequency, flexibility, mode and punctuality on a sample of Italian small- and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SME). Our findings suggest that the linearity-in-the-attributes assumption should be rejected and that the marginal impact on the utility-of-profit of the attributes is not constant. More specifically travel time and freight rate produce decreasing marginal reductions of the utility-of-profit; while safety (percentage of not damaged or lost shipments) and punctuality (percentage of shipments on time) are responsible for increasing marginal contributions to the utility-of-profit. The substitutability ratios between (a) freight rate and loss and damage, (b) freight rate and travel time, (c) freight rate and punctuality, (d) travel time and damage and loss and (e) travel time and punctuality are estimated and found not constant. Finally, it is found that the willingness to pay for the qualitative attributes obtained with a linearly specified model tend to be overestimated

Assessment of the N-PCR Assay in Diagnosis of Pleural Tuberculosis: Detection of M.tuberculosis in Pleural Fluid and Sputum Collected in Tandem

The nonspecific clinical presentation and paucibacillary nature of tuberculous pleuritis remains a challenge for diagnosis. Diagnosis of tuberculous pleural effusion depends on the demonstration of the presence of tubercle bacilli in the sputum, pleural fluid, or pleural biopsy specimen, or demonstration of granuloma in pleura by histological examination. We examined the clinical utility of the diagnosis of pleural tuberculosis using the in house N-PCR assay, AFB smear microscopy and culture. Besides pleural fluid the inclusion of sputum in the efficacy of diagnosis of pleural tuberculosis was scrutinized.Pleural fluid and sputum samples of 58 tuberculous and 42 non-tuberculous pleural effusion patients were processed for AFB smear microscopy, culture and the N-PCR assay. Mycobacteria were detected exclusively in tuberculous pleural effusion samples. None of the non-tuberculous pleural effusion samples were positive for mycobacteria. Comparative analysis showed that the N-PCR assay had the highest sensitivity. Inclusion of sputum along with pleural fluid increased N-PCR sensitivity from 51.7 to 70.6% (p<0.0001).This improved sensitivity was reflected in AFB smear microscopy and isolation by culture. The sensitivity enhanced on inclusion of sputum from 3.4 (p = 0.50) to 10.3% (p = 0.038) for AFB smear microscopy and for isolation of mycobacteria from 10.3(p = 0.03) to 22.4% (p = 0.0005). Thirteen isolates were obtained from 58 pleural tuberculosis patients. Eleven mycobacterial isolates were identified as M. tuberculosis and two as M. fortuitum and M. chelonae. Complete concordance was seen between the biochemical identification of isolates and the N-PCR identification of mycobacterial species prior to isolation.To the best of our knowledge this is the first PCR based report on utility of sputum for diagnosis of pleural tuberculosis. The present study demonstrates that a combination of pleural fluid with sputum sample and N-PCR improved the diagnosis of pleural tuberculosis

Swiss second-home owners’ intentions of changing housing patterns

For several decades, second homes have gained popularity across Europe. For various socio-economic reasons, it is important to understand the factors prompting owners to migrate to the destination area or preventing them from doing so. Discussions about “home” and “migration” here consider the emerging explanatory opportunities brought about by the “new mobility paradigm”. The purpose of this work is to examine whether second-home owners are prone to switch their housing pattern, hence permanently move to their second home, or to maintain the status quo, following a more flexible lifestyle by using both homes. An empirical investigation aimed at identifying the key factors fostering second-home owners’ intentions of future relocation to a holiday destination is proposed. Individual observations were collected through a survey posted to second-home owners in the Lake Maggiore region (Southern Switzerland). Results show that most of the second-home owners are happy to continue their current flexible housing patterns and enjoy the best of both homes, rather than opting for permanent relocation. This study also demonstrates the importance of the owner’s socio-demographic and psychological traits, as well as objective and subjective host-community characteristics, in explaining individuals’ future housing intentions

Drivers of travel insurance purchase

With the increasing number of critical events happening at tourism destinations, travelers engage in different strategies to reduce travel risks, and travel insurance purchase is one of these. However, little is known about travel insurance purchase behavior despite its relevance in the modern context of travelers’ heightened alert induced by potential or actual risks of critical events. The present study applies an Integrated Choice and Latent Variable (ICLV) model to investigate individual insurance purchase decisions in a leisure travel context. A mix of sociodemographic covariates, travel-related behaviors, and psychological variables is adopted in the model. Personality traits are crucial for the purchase of products that are strongly related to the psychological dimension of individuals’ choice behavior. The results show that personality traits of conscientiousness and neuroticism contribute to the determination of travel insurance purchase behavior